Keturah™ Al Ain — Feasibility Position Paper
Conclusion
Supports a decision to proceed to full feasibility — not a final investment decision.
On a reconciled basis the Project is financially feasible. Total development cost excluding land is AED 8.55 billion — approximately 27% below the figure previously circulated — against a required residential realisation of AED 890–1,080 per sq ft.
- ▸The upper end of the current Al Ain premium villa market is ≈ AED 900 per sq ft, so the case rests on achieving the top of the market plus a demonstrable brand premium — defensible, not speculative, but must be underwritten by independent valuation before capital is committed.
- ▸Each phase is a discrete investment decision funded progressively from realised off-plan sales, so sponsor capital genuinely at risk is a fraction of the AED 8.55 billion programme cost — not the full amount. Peak exposure is being modelled to the revised 250 / 375 / 125 sequencing.
- ▸The downside is bounded by design.
Reconciled Development Parameters
A single plot FAR of 0.50 is applied to every square metre of GFA on identified land — removing the earlier unallocated balance and releasing surplus hospitality land to preservation.
| Land Use | Land Area (sqm) | Plot FAR | GFA (sqm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 2,004,000 | 0.50 | 1,002,000 |
| Hospitality & Wellness | 100,000 | 0.50 | 50,000 |
| Mixed-Use Village (Souq) | 10,000 | 0.50 | 5,000 |
| Infrastructure & Roads | 167,000 | — | — |
| Open Space & Preservation | 1,059,000 | — | — |
| TOTAL | 3,340,000 | 1,057,000 |
| Derived metric | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Gross site FAR | 0.32 | 1,057,000 sqm GFA over the 3,340,000 sqm site |
| Residences | ~750 | 1,002,000 sqm at ~1,336 sqm average |
| Net residential density | ~3.7 units / ha | 750 homes across 200.4 ha of residential land |
| Site coverage (footprint) | 12.9% | Substantiates the ultra-low-density claim |
| Open space ratio | 31.7% | Improved from 20% as previously stated |
Capital Requirement
Total development cost excluding land and finance costs.
| Cost component | AED m | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Residential construction | 6,513 | 1,002,000 sqm at AED 6,500/sqm |
| Hospitality construction | 550 | 50,000 sqm at AED 11,000/sqm |
| Retail construction | 38 | 5,000 sqm at AED 7,500/sqm |
| Hard cost subtotal | 7,101 | Sum of construction |
| Infrastructure CapEx | 370 | Fixed estimate |
| Soft costs | 710 | 10% of hard cost |
| Contingency | 374 | 5% of hard cost plus infrastructure |
| TOTAL (excluding land) | 8,554 | Land and finance costs excluded |
Cost base (AED 8.55 bn ex-land)
- Residential construction76%
- Hospitality construction6%
- Retail construction0%
- Infrastructure CapEx4%
- Soft costs8%
- Contingency4%
Capital Structure
Capital stack at financial close.
The Feasibility Test — Required Residential Realisation
Feasibility turns on one variable: the price the residential product achieves. The test asks what price is required, then measures it against the market.
| Scenario | Residential share | Required AED / sq ft | Average villa price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hospitality & retail perform | 70% | 888 | AED 12.77 m |
| Residential carries the return | 85% | 1079 | AED 15.52 m |
| Al Ain premium villa market | Reference | 500 – 900 | — |
Required price vs Al Ain market ceiling (≈ AED 900 / sq ft)
Why the Downside Is Bounded
Staged exposure
Phase 1 delivers the first 250 residences; Phases 2 (375) and 3 (125) are separate investment decisions funded progressively from realised off-plan sales.
Sales-funded delivery
Later phases are funded from realised receipts, and low-rise horizontal villas release in small increments. If absorption underperforms, delivery slows — it does not create a funding gap.
Heritage is not binding
At 12.9% site coverage the low-rise height envelope is not a limiting factor. UNESCO compliance is achieved without sacrificing developable value.
Lower capital at risk
The reconciled cost base is AED 3.2 billion below the figure previously presented, materially reducing the equity requirement.
Conditions Precedent
This paper supports a decision to proceed to full feasibility. It does not support a final investment decision. Four items must close first.
| Item | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Planning parameters | Written confirmation of land use, FAR basis and setbacks from Al Ain City Municipality / DMT. |
| Market & valuation | Independent residential valuation and absorption study testing the AED 890–1,080 per sq ft range. |
| Heritage & environment | Heritage Impact Assessment scoping with DCT Abu Dhabi and an EAD environmental scoping opinion. |
| Sales & ownership | Confirmation of investment-zone designation for non-GCC ownership, and ADREC escrow structuring across phases. |
Supporting Analysis
All figures are those tabled in Sections 2–5. No additional assumptions are introduced.
- →The reconciled programme is a 613,000 sqm reduction against the LOI figure — driven by the single-FAR basis and the release of surplus hospitality land to preservation.
- →The required price crosses the AED 900 market ceiling at a residential share of 70.9% — the base case therefore sits essentially on the ceiling, with roughly AED 12 / sq ft of headroom.
- →Any outcome in which hospitality and retail contribute less than 30% of realisations requires a brand premium above the existing market — which is the case the valuation must test.
- →Delivery is sequenced as 250 / 375 / 125 residences across the three phases, each a discrete investment decision funded progressively from realised sales; the phase split of the AED 8,554m programme is being re-modelled to this sequencing.